Methodology: Theft and Sabotage

Summary

To gain a better understanding of current global nuclear security conditions, the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) commissioned Economist Enterprise (formerly Economist Impact) to construct the latest edition of the NTI Nuclear Security Index (the 2026 NTI Index). The 2026 NTI Index provides a country- or area-level assessment of nuclear security conditions in 175 countries and Taiwan. It follows the release of six iterations of the NTI Index, in January 2012, January 2014, January 2016, September 2018, July 2020, and July 2023, respectively.

To ensure that the 2026 NTI Index reflects the recent developments in nuclear security conditions and policy landscape while enabling meaningful comparisons over time, NTI and Economist Enterprise reviewed and updated data for all editions of the NTI Index published since 2016 to provide 10 years of data for analysis. The 2012 and 2014 iterations were not updated or included in the 2026 NTI Index.

The 2026 NTI Index divides countries and areas into three groups, each with independent rankings and assessments. The first group of countries assessed in the NTI Index comprises the 22 countries with 1 kilogram or more of weapons-usable nuclear materials (this assessment results in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking for countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials). This ranking assesses actions related to securing materials against theft. The second group contains the 153 countries and Taiwan that have less than 1 kilogram of or no weapons-usable nuclear materials, but that could be used as safe havens, staging grounds, or transit points for illicit nuclear activities (the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking for countries and areas without nuclear materials). This ranking assesses actions related to supporting global nuclear security efforts. The third and final group includes the 47 countries and Taiwan with certain types of nuclear facilities, the sabotage of which could result in a significant radiological release with serious off-site health consequences (the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking).1 This ranking assesses actions related to protecting nuclear facilities against sabotage. The first edition of the NTI Index to include the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking was released in 2016.

Nuclear security is particularly difficult to observe, both because of the legacy of secrecy associated with the subject and because of the absence of quantitative performance indicators. To address the need for an objective, country- or area-level assessment of nuclear security, Economist Enterprise developed a multidimensional analytical framework, commonly known as a benchmarking index. A multidimensional framework is a useful way of measuring performance that cannot be directly observed—for example, a country’s or area’s economic competitiveness or, in this case, a country’s or area’s nuclear security conditions. Indices, in such cases, are effective in several ways: (a) they can aggregate a wide range of related data and evaluate it in a consistent manner; (b) they can track outcomes over time; and (c) they can spur countries to improve performance, especially relative to other countries in the index. Indices can therefore be a useful tool for stimulating public policy reforms. The goal of the NTI Index is not only to prompt improvements in nuclear security policies and programs but also to encourage international debate on the risks and other factors that affect the likelihood of a country or area losing control of its weapons-usable nuclear materials or a country’s or area’s nuclear facilities being subject to an act of sabotage.

The 2026 NTI Index is again the result of collaboration between NTI and Economist Enterprise. Economist Enterprise researched the metrics captured in the NTI Index, paying particular attention to any changes to regulations or licensing conditions in a country or area. As a result of updates and revisions to the NTI Index framework since previous editions, direct year-over-year comparisons would been impossible. To allow such comparisons, Economist Enterprise rescored countries or areas in the previous editions of the NTI Index using the updated 2026 framework and the data that would have been available when research for those editions was conducted.

In addition, the results from previous editions of the NTI Index were thoroughly reviewed and researched again to ensure accuracy. In a limited number of cases, research indicated that more information had become available, a relevant law or regulation had not been captured, or researchers disagreed on a score. In those instances, Economist Enterprise revised the previous scores to reflect the most accurate data. Rescoring those select data points was necessary for the 2026 NTI Index to capture accurate year-over-year comparisons. Most of the research was conducted between October 2025 and May 2026, although data were updated as new information became available until June 12, 2026.

NTI and Economist Enterprise once again drew on the expertise of highly respected nuclear security experts (the International Panel of Experts) from nuclear- and non–nuclear-weapons states, from countries and areas with and without nuclear materials, and from developed and developing nations to provide input on options for strengthening the 2026 NTI Index.

The categories in the Theft: Secure Materials and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities rankings are as follows:

  1. Quantities and Sites, 2 which captures the quantity of nuclear materials, the number of sites, the frequency of transport in a particular country or area, and whether quantities are increasing or decreasing
  2. Security and Control Measures, which encompasses the core activities related to the physical protection and accounting of weapons-usable nuclear materials, personnel and security infrastructure, cybersecurity, and security culture
  3. Global Norms, which includes actions that contribute to a strengthened global nuclear security architecture
  4. Domestic Commitments and Capacity, which indicates how well a country or area has implemented its international commitments and a country’s or area’s capacity to do so
  5. Risk Environment, which examines issues that can undermine nuclear security at the national level, such as political instability, absence of effective governance, corruption, or the illicit activities of nonstate actors.

The Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking consists of Categories 3, 4, and 5 from the Theft: Secure Materials ranking.

The research for both the Theft: Secure Materials and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities rankings primarily considered regulatory requirements for security. Taking a bottom-up approach and reviewing security at the facility or site level within each country or area was impossible, not least because of national security concerns. Researching domestic regulations also posed a challenge: some countries do not publish the majority of their nuclear security regulations; and two, Israel and North Korea, make no regulations public. Owing to these research challenges, Economist Enterprise used a variety of techniques to score certain countries (see the section titled “Research behind Selected Indicators”).

To limit the degree of subjectivity in these indicators, Economist Enterprise created subindicators that, whenever possible, were framed as a binary choice (yes or no, or 1 or 0). For example, Economist Enterprise asked whether physical protection is a condition for licensing in the country or area. If physical protection is a licensing requirement, the country or area is awarded one point; if it is not, the country or area scores a zero. A binary approach limits the risk of subjectivity and increases the likelihood that the same scores would be obtained by another set of researchers, a key measure of objectivity and analytical rigor. If a binary approach was inappropriate, the research team used a qualitative scoring approach.

Despite the care taken in designing these measures, no index of this kind can be perfect. Some countries or areas are particularly nontransparent in matters of nuclear security. In those cases, Economist Enterprise scored indicators using expert judgment or relied on proxy measures; for example, the sophistication of a country’s or area’s military operations was used to assess how well weapons-usable nuclear materials and nuclear facilities are protected in countries where the military is primarily responsible for that protection.

The indicators in the 2026 NTI Index are embedded in interactive data dashboards (available at www.ntiindex.org) that offer a wide range of analytical tools, allowing a deeper investigation of measures of nuclear security globally.3 For example, users can filter countries or areas by region or by membership in international organizations or multilateral initiatives. A user can directly compare two or more countries or areas and can examine correlations between indicators. Individual country or area profiles are also included in the 2026 NTI Index model, permitting a deeper dive into the nuclear security conditions in each country or area. Finally, the dashboards allow scores to be benchmarked against external factors that may potentially influence nuclear security. For example, the results of the Theft: Secure Materials ranking correlate well with regulatory quality (as measured by the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators) and with those countries and areas that are most at peace (as measured by the 2025 Global Peace Index).


Methodology

General

The 2026 NTI Index includes three separate rankings. The first ranking assesses the nuclear materials security conditions in 22 countries that have 1 kilogram or more of weapons-usable nuclear materials (Theft: Secure Materials). This ranking assesses actions related to securing materials against theft. The ranking has 85 subindicators used to construct 22 indicators across five categories. The scope of Theft: Secure Materials ranking includes highly enriched uranium (HEU), including spent fuel and separated plutonium, including plutonium in unirradiated mixed oxide fuel (MOX). A second, separate ranking assesses the nuclear materials security conditions in 153 countries and Taiwan that have less than 1 kilogram of or no weapons-usable nuclear materials, but that could be used as safe havens, staging grounds, or transit routes (Theft: Support Global Efforts).4 This ranking assesses actions related to supporting global nuclear security efforts. The number of countries in the theft ranking for countries without materials was initially determined by the scope of the Operational Risk service of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).5 The Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking has 35 subindicators across 10 indicators and three categories; the three categories are a subset of the five categories in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking. Finally, the third ranking assesses nuclear security conditions in 47 countries and Taiwan6 with certain types of nuclear facilities, the sabotage of which could lead to a significant radiological release with serious off-site health consequences (Sabotage: Protect Facilities).7 This ranking assesses actions related to protecting nuclear facilities against sabotage. The Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking has 20 indicators and 78 subindicators across five categories.

The overall score (0–100) for each country or area in each ranking is a weighted sum of the categories included in that ranking. Each category is scored on a scale of 0–100, where 100 represents the most favorable nuclear security conditions and 0 represents the least favorable conditions. A score of 100 in the ranking does not indicate that a country or area has perfect nuclear security conditions, and likewise a score of 0 does not mean that a country or area has no security; instead, the scores of 100 and 0 represent the highest or lowest possible score, respectively, as measured by the NTI Index criteria. Each category score is normalized on the basis of the sums of underlying indicators and subindicators and a weight is then applied. Weights are based on input from the International Panel of Experts and NTI and reflect the relative importance and relevance of each indicator and category. These weights differ between the three rankings to reflect that security priorities may differ in countries with or without weapons-usable nuclear materials and in countries with nuclear facilities.

The number of countries or areas and indicators in each of the three rankings has changed repeatedly since the framework’s inception in 2012. For example, the NTI Index Theft: Secure Materials ranking assessed the following:

  • 2012: 32 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials across 18 indicators
  • 2014: 25 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials across 19 indicators
  • 2016: 24 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials across 20 indicators
  • 2018: 22 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials across 20 indicators
  • 2020: 22 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials across 21 indicators
  • 2023: 22 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials across 21 indicators
  • 2026: 22 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials across 22 indicators

The steady decline in the number of countries within the Theft: Secure Materials ranking between 2012 and 2018 reflects the removal of all or most of such materials from the territories of 10 countries.8 The NTI Index Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking assessed 46 countries and Taiwan against 18 indicators in 2020. The number of countries and areas in the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking increased by 2 from 2018 to 2020 as a result of the construction of nuclear facilities in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. No change occurred in the number of countries and areas included in any of the rankings between 2020 and 2023. However, between 2023 and 2026, the number of countries and areas in the sabotage ranking increased from 47 to 48, following the addition of Belarus and Turkey and the removal of Norway.

Index constraints and other important factors

In producing the NTI Index, Economist Enterprise relied on publicly available sources, such as laws and regulations, to reach initial scoring conclusions. The research team gathered data from the following types of sources:

  • Primary legal texts and legal reports
  • Government publications and reports
  • Academic publications and reports
  • Websites of government authorities, international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations
  • EIU country rankings and reports (specifically “Operational Risk”)
  • Local and international news media reports.

See the Selected Bibliography for more information on central sources.

The emphasis on publicly available sources has the benefit of creating a transparent and repeatable methodology, but it also presents some challenges. For example, regulations and other requirements for nuclear security are sometimes classified. In cases where no public information was available, those countries or areas were queried about the status of their regulations or licensing conditions as part of the data confirmation process. These countries or areas could then choose whether to provide additional insight into their regulatory requirements, which could then be considered in making a final scoring decision.

In cases where countries or areas are particularly nontransparent and chose not to respond to data confirmation queries, scores were assigned on the basis of a proxy indicator or the country was given a score of 0. The absence of information on nuclear security reduces public and international confidence in the security measures countries and areas are taking; thus, it is appropriate for those countries that do not make their regulations publicly available to receive low scores.

Although facility-level assessments would provide important “ground-truth” information, this level of granularity is currently impossible because of the sensitive nature of specific security arrangements. The NTI Index relies instead on the assumption that a country with the appropriate laws and regulations in place is more likely to have sound security procedures at each nuclear facility than a country without appropriate laws and regulations.

Additionally, the NTI Index includes “indicators” of security conditions and not the complete set of good security practices that nuclear faculties should use to protect against theft of weapons-usable nuclear materials or sabotage of nuclear facilities. For example, information regarding the types of locking mechanisms, surveillance systems, thickness of walls, and so forth is not publicly available for security reasons. The exclusion of specific security practices from the NTI Index does not reflect their lack of importance, but instead reflects the research constraints of the NTI Index.

Finally, please note that the NTI Nuclear Security Index does not directly address proliferation risks, smuggling or illicit trafficking, disarmament, or nuclear safety.

International Panel of Experts

As in previous years, NTI and Economist Enterprise drew on the expertise of highly respected nuclear security experts (the International Panel of Experts) from nuclear- and non–nuclear-weapons states, from countries and areas with and without materials, and from developed and developing nations to provide input on options for strengthening the 2026 NTI Index. This input included discussions on proposed changes to the NTI Index framework, with particular focus on the Risk Environment category, including approaches to measuring political stability, armed conflict, governance, corruption, illicit activities by nonstate actors, environmental vulnerability, and other emerging risks relevant to nuclear security. As in previous years, the panel also provided feedback on the relative importance of the Index categories and indicators, helping inform the default weighting scheme applied in the 2026 NTI Index. Economist Enterprise also received expert guidance from technical advisors throughout the research process. These technical advisors helped Economist Enterprise modify and refine indicators to capture key elements of nuclear security and provided insights into the more technical parts of the research.

Country and area scope

By reviewing recent reports pertaining to quantities of nuclear materials and taking into account recent developments, Economist Enterprise identified the following 22 countries (listed in alphabetical order) as having 1 kilogram or more of HEU (including spent fuel) or separated plutonium, including plutonium content in unirradiated MOX:

Country Table
Australia
Belarus
Belgium
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Iran
Israel
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
North Korea
Norway
Pakistan
Russian Federation
South Africa
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States

The 2026 NTI Index also assesses the following 154 countries and areas (listed in alphabetical order) that have less than 1 kilogram of weapons-usable nuclear materials or no weapons-usable nuclear materials:

Country Table 2
Afghanistan
Albania
Algeria
Angola
Argentina
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belize
Benin
Bhutan
Bolivia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei Darussalam
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cabo Verde
Cambodia
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
Colombia
Comoros
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Congo, Rep.
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Eswatini
Ethiopia
Fiji
Finland
Gabon
Gambia, The
Georgia
Ghana
Greece
Guatemala
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hungary
Iceland
Indonesia
Iraq
Ireland
Jamaica
Jordan
Kenya
Kuwait
Kyrgyz Republic
Lao PDR
Latvia
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Mali
Malta
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mexico
Moldova
Mongolia
Montenegro
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Nepal
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
North Macedonia
Oman
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Rwanda
Samoa
São Tomé and Príncipe
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
Somalia
South Korea
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Suriname
Sweden
Syrian Arab Republic
Taiwan
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Thailand
Timor-Leste
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Uganda
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Afghanistan
Albania
Algeria
Angola
Argentina
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belize
Benin
Bhutan
Bolivia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei Darussalam
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cabo Verde
Cambodia
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
Colombia
Comoros
Congo, Dem. Rep. of
Congo, Rep.
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Eswatini
Ethiopia
Fiji
Finland
Gabon
Gambia, The
Georgia
Ghana
Greece
Guatemala
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hungary
Iceland
Indonesia
Iraq
Ireland
Jamaica
Jordan
Kenya
Kuwait
Kyrgyz Republic
Lao PDR
Latvia
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Mali
Malta
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mexico
Moldova
Mongolia
Montenegro
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Nepal
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
North Macedonia
Oman
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Rwanda
Samoa
São Tomé and Príncipe
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Serbia
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
Somalia
South Korea
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Suriname
Sweden
Syrian Arab Republic
Taiwan
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Thailand
Timor-Leste
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
Turkmenistan
Uganda
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen
Zambia
Zimbabwe

The 2026 NTI Index also assesses the following 48 countries and areas (listed in alphabetical order) with nuclear facilities, the sabotage of which could result in a significant radiological release with serious off-site health consequences. Note that this list includes 20 of the countries in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and 27 countries and Taiwan that are in the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking.

Country Table 3
Algeria
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Bangladesh
Belarus
Belgium
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Chile
China
Czech Republic
Egypt
Finland
France
Germany
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Iran
Israel
Japan
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Morocco
Netherlands
North Korea
Pakistan
Peru
Poland
Romania
Russian Federation
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Turkey
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Uzbekistan
Algeria
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Bangladesh
Belarus
Belgium
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Chile
China
Czech Republic
Egypt
Finland
France
Germany
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Iran
Israel
Japan
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Morocco
Netherlands
North Korea
Pakistan
Peru
Poland
Romania
Russian Federation
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Turkey
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Uzbekistan

Data review and confirmation process

After researching the indicators for each ranking, NTI and Economist Enterprise provided all 50 countries and areas included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking with an opportunity to review and comment on Economist Enterprise’s preliminary results. The purpose of the data review and confirmation process was to ensure the accuracy of the 2026 NTI Index data. The research team also recognized that some countries might be willing, upon request, to provide Economist Enterprise with more detailed information than is readily available to the public.

To make this process as simple as possible, Economist Enterprise developed documents that presented the preliminary scores for the 2026 NTI Index indicators. These forms allowed the reviewers to either agree or disagree with the score selected for their country or area and, if a reviewer disagreed, offer an alternative answer and justification. Economist Enterprise used the submitted responses to reevaluate and potentially change a country’s or area’s scores. When the responses were unclear, Economist Enterprise contacted individuals for clarification. Country and area representatives had five weeks—from early May to mid-June 2026—to respond to the data review and confirmation request.

Of the 50 countries and areas contacted, 22 provided official responses to the data review and confirmation request:  Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Finland, Hungary, Italy, Jordan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uzbekistan.9

Scoring

Subindicator scoring options range from binary observations (0, 1) to subindicators with 10 possible scores. For each subindicator, a higher value is associated with more favorable nuclear security conditions. For example, for the subindicator number of sites in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, a country or area with 100 or more sites with nuclear materials is assigned a value of 0, whereas a country or area with 1 site is assigned a value of 3. The sum of the subindicator values is divided by the total possible subindicator values, then converted to a 0–100 scale to determine the indicator score. The sole exception to this scoring scheme is Indicator 3.2 Voluntary commitments. This indicator has 10 subindicators, of which 9 are scored on a binary scale (0, 1) and 1 is scored on a scale of 0–2. However, the total indicator score is capped at 6.10

Theft:
Secure Materials Ranking

The five categories of the Theft: Secure Materials ranking are as follows:

  1. Quantities and Sites. This category comprises three indicators: Quantities of Nuclear Materials, Sites and Transportation, and Materials Production and Elimination Trends.
  2. Security and Control Measures. This category comprises seven indicators: On-Site Physical Protection, Control and Accounting Procedures, Insider Threat Prevention, Physical Security during Transport, Response Capabilities, Cybersecurity, and Security Culture.
  3. Global Norms. This category comprises four indicators: International Legal Commitments, Voluntary Commitments, International Assurances, and IAEA Nuclear Security Information Circulars.
  4. Domestic Commitments and Capacity. This category comprises three indicators: UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 Implementation, Domestic Nuclear Materials Security Legislation, and Independent Regulatory Agency.
  5. Risk Environment. This category comprises five indicators: Political Stability, Effective Governance, Pervasiveness of Corruption, Illicit Activities by Nonstate Actors, and Environmental Risk.

Each indicator within the five categories contains up to 10 underlying subindicators. The categories, indicators, and subindicators are as follows:

*Indicates new or revised indicator/subindicator. For more details on new and revised indicators/subindicators, see the section titled “Comparability between 2023 and 2026 NTI Indices.”

Nuclear Materials Security Index

Theft:
Support Global Efforts Ranking

The three categories of the Theft: Support Global Efforts are a subset of the Theft: Secure Materials ranking. They comprise Categories 3 through 5 as follows:

  1. Global Norms. This category comprises three indicators: International Legal Commitments, Voluntary Commitments, and IAEA Nuclear Security INFCIRCs.
  2. Domestic Commitments and Capacity. This category comprises two indicators: UNSCR 1540 Implementation and Domestic Nuclear Materials Security Legislation.
  3. Risk Environment. This category comprises five indicators: Political Stability, Effective Governance, Pervasiveness of Corruption, Illicit Activities of Nonstate Actors, and Environmental Risk.

Each indicator within the three categories contains 1 to 11 underlying subindicators. The categories, indicators, and subindicators are as follows:

*Indicates new or revised indicator/subindicator. For more details on new and revised indicators/subindicators, see the section titled “Comparability between 2023 and 2026 NTI Indices.”

Nuclear Materials Security Index

Sabotage:
Protect Facilities Ranking

The five categories of the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking are as follows:

  1. Number of Sites. This category comprises two indicators: Number of Sites and Plutonium Economy.
  2. Security and Control Measures. This category comprises six indicators: On-Site Physical Protection, Control and Accounting Procedures, Insider Threat Prevention, Response Capabilities, Cybersecurity, and Security Culture.
  3. Global Norms. This category comprises four indicators: International Legal Commitments, Voluntary Commitments, International Assurances, and IAEA Nuclear Security INFCIRCs.
  4. Domestic Commitments and Capacity. This category comprises three indicators: UNSCR 1540 Implementation, Domestic Nuclear Security Legislation, and Independent Regulatory Agency.
  5. Risk Environment. This category comprises five indicators: Political Stability, Effective Governance, Pervasiveness of Corruption, Illicit Activities of Nonstate Actors, and Environmental Risk.

Each indicator within the five categories contains up to 10 underlying subindicators. The categories, indicators, and subindicators are as follows:11

# Denotes indicators and subindicators that are unique to the sabotage ranking.

Denotes indicators and subindicators that are also in the theft ranking but have been adjusted to be specific to the sabotage of nuclear facilities.

* Indicates new or revised indicator/subindicator. For more details on new and revised indicators/subindicators, see the section titled “Comparability between 2023 and 2026 NTI Indices.”

Sabotage: Protect Facilities

Outcomes-based regulations

Security at nuclear facilities should not be static and must undergo continuous improvement. The most common approach to nuclear security historically has been for countries and areas to put in place prescriptive regulations with which nuclear operators must comply. However, regulations are not updated frequently, and they often lag behind developments in security practice or the types of threats against which nuclear operators need to protect.

Some countries and areas are moving away from prescriptive regulations for nuclear security toward more outcomes-based/results-based approaches, which might require a more flexible approach to scoring in the NTI Index. Rather than using national-level regulations that operators at facilities then implement, an outcomes-based regulatory approach sets parameters against which facilities must be protected (e.g., cyberattacks or armed attacks). The onus is on the licensee/operator to design specific procedures tailored to the facility to meet these overall security objectives. An outcomes-based approach provides licensees with a greater level of responsibility for shaping and implementing nuclear security at their nuclear facilities. This shift is designed to promote a more cooperative working relationship between the licensee and the regulator.

Advocates of outcomes-based regulation make a number of arguments to support this approach. First, in the absence of regulator-prescribed standards, licensees must take greater responsibility for the design and implementation of their security arrangements. Second, the regulator can foster an environment of innovation and continuous improvement in which licensees are encouraged to adopt novel security solutions that work in harmony with their business processes. Third, licensees have the flexibility to quickly review and optimize their arrangements in response to dynamic threat environments, which is not possible under a system of prescriptive regulations.

Throughout the research process, Economist Enterprise encountered several countries or areas that are shifting toward an outcomes-based approach, particularly in the area of personnel vetting and cybersecurity. For example, some countries or areas are employing “continuous” vetting of personnel. Rather than requiring alcohol or drug tests at fixed intervals, all personnel at facilities are trained to monitor the behavior of their colleagues continuously and to report any anomalies that are observed. These anomalies then result in a more formalized vetting procedure to identify the cause of aberrant behavior and to determine whether the behavior presents risks to the facility.

When countries or areas indicated they had outcome-based regulations, scores were adjudicated by Economist Enterprise on a case-by-case basis. An increasing number of countries or areas have adopted outcomes-based regulations since the NTI Index was first released in 2012, which has had a significant impact on the index methodology in recent iterations.

Calculating the 2026 NTI Nuclear Security Index

The subindicators listed are classified into indicators, and their values are summed and then set on a 0–100 scale to determine the value of the indicator:

indicator score = (Σ individual subindicators / Σ maximum subindicator scores) * 100

The category values are a weighted total of the indicators in the category:

category score = Σ weighted individual indicators

The category values have been normalized on the basis of the following equation:

x = (x − Min(x)) / (Max(x) − Min(x)),

where Min(x) and Max(x) are, respectively, the lowest and highest values in the NTI Index (i.e., out of the 22 countries with materials, out of the 153 countries and Taiwan without materials, or out of the 47 countries and Taiwan with nuclear facilities at risk of sabotage) for any given indicator. The normalized value (i.e., a score of 0–100) makes it directly comparable with other normalized indicator scores.

The following is an example of calculating the Category 1 score for Australia:

Calculating Category 1 Example
Indicator name Raw score (0–100) Weight (%) Weighted score Normalized score (0–100)
1   Quantities and Sites 1 Quantities and Sites 93.2 93.2
1.1   Quantities of Nuclear Materials 1.1 Quantities of Nuclear Materials 100 37.6 37.6
1.2   Sites and Transportation 1.2 Sites and Transportation 100 35.3 35.3
1.3   Material Production/Elimination Trends 1.3 Material Production/Elimination Trends 75 27.1 20.3

In this example, the normalized Category 1 score was calculated using a Max(x) value of 100 and Min(x) value of 0, as reflected in the data.

The overall score for each country or area is the weighted sum of the category scores, as determined by the weighting profile:

Overall score = Σ weighted category scores

The following is an example of calculating the overall score for Australia:

Calculating Overall Score Example
Category name Normalized score (0–100) Weight (%) Weighted score
Overall Overall 92.3
1   Quantities and Sites 1 Quantities and Sites 93.2 23.7 22.1
2   Security and Control Measures 2 Security and Control Measures 85.5 21.1 18.0
3   Global Norms 3 Global Norms 96.1 19.4 18.6
4   Domestic Commitments and Capacity 4 Domestic Commitments and Capacity 100.0 18.6 18.6
5   Risk Environment 5 Risk Environment 86.2 17.3 14.9

The countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials, countries and areas without weapons-usable nuclear materials, and countries and areas with nuclear facilities at risk of sabotage can then be ranked according to these parameters.

Model weights

The weights assigned to each category and indicator can be changed in the NTI Index data dashboards to reflect different assumptions about their relative importance. Three sets of weights are provided in all the data dashboards. The weights defined by NTI and Economist Enterprise are the default settings. They are based on extensive discussions between NTI, Economist Enterprise, and the International Panel of Experts on the relative value of each category and indicator. The second weighting option, called equal category weights, assumes all categories are equally important and evenly distributes weights on that basis. The third option, called equal indicator weights, assigns an identical weight to each indicator rather than to each category.

A fourth weighting option called principal components analysis (PCA) is included in the Theft: Secure Materials and Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking data dashboards. PCA is detailed further below.

The default setting uses expert judgment to assign weights to indicators, bringing a real-world perspective to the NTI Index. This perspective is important if the Index is to guide policy actions. The second and third options—in which all categories or indicators, respectively, are weighted equally—have the advantage of simplicity and do not involve subjective judgment. One disadvantage of these options is that they assume that all indicators or categories, respectively, are equally significant.

Weight Profile Defined by NTI and Economist Enterprise for the Theft: Secure Materials Ranking

Category Weights
Category Weight
Quantities and Sites 23.7%
Security and Control Measures 21.1%
Global Norms 19.4%
Domestic Commitments and Capacity 18.6%
Risk Environment 17.3%
Indicator Weights
Indicator Weight

Weight Profile Defined by NTI and Economist Enterprise for Theft: Support Global Efforts Ranking

Weight Profile for Theft: Support Global Efforts – Category Weights
Category Weight
Global Norms 35.1%
Domestic Commitments and Capacity 33.7%
Risk Environment 31.3%
Weight Profile for Theft: Support Global Efforts – Indicator Weights
Indicator Weight

Weight Profile Defined by NTI and Economist Enterprise for the Sabotage: Protect Facilities Ranking

Sabotage: Protect Facilities – Category Weights
Category Weight
Number of Sites 14.2%
Security and Control Measures 28.3%
Global Norms 21.2%
Domestic Commitments and Capacity 18.7%
Risk Environment 17.7%
Sabotage: Protect Facilities – Indicator Weights
Indicator Weight

Principal Components Analysis

The goal of PCA is to define quantitatively a weighting scheme for the indicators that are used to create a composite index or ranking of overall nuclear security. PCA is a method for removing redundant information shared across indicators by specifying a weighting that explains the most variance in the data.

PCA assigns each element in an index a weight that takes into account the covariance between indicators and the importance of a particular element in maximizing the variation in the index outcome (nuclear security conditions); in other words, it aims to minimize redundancy between variables and to maximize the variance with respect to the outcome. The weight is calculated by taking the principal component (eigenvector) associated with the highest explained variance (eigenvalue). Important assumptions for valid PCA are (a) the variance is meaningful and not the result of data with large measurement error, and (b) the dynamics of interest (nuclear security conditions) are along the direction with the largest variance.

Variation within indicator weights is a sign of redundancy in the elements or that some elements are not as relevant in explaining the variation in the overall index once all of the other variables are considered. Finding equal weights across indicators is a sign of very little redundancy across subgroups and similar relevance in explaining variation in the index, which suggests that the index was appropriately divided into subgroups.

The PCA-weights feature within the NTI Index models has been provided for those experts who may wish to explore the behavior of the framework in more depth. They should not be considered (a) as an alternative to the NTI/Economist Enterprise weights or (b) as a means of understanding country and area rankings and scores, because they do not consider the intrinsic significance of an indicator in the context of the NTI Index.

Weight Profile Defined by PCA for the Theft: Secure Materials Ranking

PCA – Theft: Secure Materials – Category Weights
Category Weight
Quantities and Sites 8.1%
Security and Control Measures 21.5%
Global Norms 28.3%
Domestic Commitments and Capacity 19.3%
Risk Environment 22.9%
PCA – Theft: Secure Materials – Indicator Weights
Indicator Weight

Weight Profile Defined by PCA for the Sabotage: Protect Facilities Ranking

PCA – Sabotage: Protect Facilities Ranking – Category Weights
Category Weight
Number of Sites 0.2%
Security and Control Measures 27.3%
Global Norms 27.3%
Domestic Commitments and Capacity 21.0%
Risk Environment 24.3%
PCA – Sabotage: Protect Facilities Ranking – Indicator Weights
Indicator Weight

Changes to the 2026 Nuclear Security Index Framework

NTI and Economist Enterprise made several changes to the NTI Index framework between 2023 and 2026 to raise the bar for nuclear security while maintaining the integrity of the 2023 framework for comparability. These changes are summarized in the following table.

Added and Modified Indicators
Added Modified
Theft with materials Theft with materials 11 indicators 14 indicators
Theft without materials Theft without materials 6 indicators 4 indicators
Sabotage Sabotage 12 indicators 11 indicators

This section provides greater detail on these changes, as well as how countries and areas were compared and the methodology used to facilitate the comparison between the 2023 and 2020 rankings.

In the 2026 edition of the Nuclear Security Index, NTI and Economist Enterprise added 12 new subindicators.

New indicators

1.2 Plutonium Economy (Sabotage: Protect Facilities)

The Plutonium Economy indicator, which is a new addition to the NTI Index in 2026, includes one subindicator.

1.2.1 Plutonium economy engagement (Sabotage: Protect Facilities)

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area participates in the plutonium economy. Engaging in the plutonium economy through the use of plutonium fuels, the reprocessing of spent fuel, or the transfer of spent fuel for reprocessing elsewhere increases reprocessing activity. Reprocessing increases the availability and handling of weapons-usable nuclear materials, heightening the risk of theft, diversion, or misuse. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = Yes
  • 1 = No

Any country or area that has plutonium stocks automatically receives a score of 0.

This subindicator is only included in the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

2.1 On-Site Physical Protection

The On-Site Physical Protection indicator comprises five subindicators, one of which is new in 2026.

2.1.5 Physical protection sustainability

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area has a Nuclear Security Support Center or non-NSSC institutions that demonstrates core nuclear security sustainability competencies. In the absence of a declared NSSC, a non-NSSC institution must clearly demonstrate capabilities in at least one of the following competency areas to receive credit: (a) human resources development (including certification, training courses, and workshops), (b) technical support (including equipment maintenance through inspection, testing, and assessment, procurement, and equipment management planning), or (c) scientific support (including technology testing and evaluation, research and development, and expert analysis). The NSSCs and other institutions that demonstrate core nuclear security competencies increase the sustainability of the nuclear security regime. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No NSSC
  • 1 = An NSSC is operational OR the country or area has a non-NSSC institution that clearly demonstrates one of the competency areas required in the absence of a declared NSSC
  • 2 = An NSSC is operational and the member state participates in IAEA’s NSSC network

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

2.6 Cybersecurity

The Cybersecurity indicator comprises seven subindicators, one of which is new in 2026.

2.6.5 (Theft: Secure Materials) / 2.5.5 (Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Cybersecurity capacity building

This subindicator assesses whether a country’s or area’s regulator is bolstering its cybersecurity technical capacity through strategic planning and dedicated technical institutions. Assessing whether a country’s or area’s nuclear regulator is proactively strengthening defenses against cyber threats by investing in planning and institutional capacity is essential for ensuring the resilience of digital systems that protect nuclear materials and facilities. Countries or areas receive credit for a national nuclear regulator cybersecurity road map/strategy or technical support organizations conducting active work on cybersecurity. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No or information not publicly available
  • 1 = Yes

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

2.7 Security Culture

The Security Culture indicator comprises four subindicators, one of which is new in 2026.

2.7.4 (Theft: Secure Materials) / 2.6.4 (Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Nuclear security participation enabling environment

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area has a policy to support equal participation or to reduce discrimination in the nuclear workforce, or has made official public statements supporting equal participation or the reduction of discrimination in nuclear security. Incorporating principles of equality, openness, and participation in nuclear security practices can contribute to more robust organizational cultures that prioritize security and accountability. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = The country or area does not have a policy to enable equal participation in nuclear security
  • 1 = The country or area has made statements on equal participation but these are not tantamount to a policy
  • 2 = The country or area has a policy to enable full participation in nuclear security

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

3.1 International Legal Commitments

The International Legal Commitments indicator comprises five subindicators, one of which is new in 2026.

3.1.5 Additional Protocol of Geneva Conventions

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area has ratified the Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions of August 12, 1949, relating to the protection of victims of international armed conflicts (Protocol I). Inclusion of adherence to Additional Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions (INFCIRC/335) as a measure in the NTI Index strengthens the assessment of a state’s commitment to preventing the use of nuclear facilities as instruments of warfare. Article 56 explicitly prohibits attacks on nuclear power plants and other installations containing dangerous forces, thereby reinforcing international norms that protect civilians and the environment from catastrophic harm during armed conflict. Tracking states’ ratification, accession, or withdrawal provides a clear, verifiable indicator of legal and ethical alignment with global standards for the protection of nuclear infrastructure and humanitarian principles. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No
  • 1 = Yes

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

3.2 Voluntary Commitments

The Voluntary Commitments indicator comprises 10 subindicators, two of which are new in 2026.

3.2.8 Emergency Preparedness Review Service (EPREV) Mission

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area has hosted an EPREV mission. EPREV missions help countries and areas keep up-to-date protocols for nuclear security emergency preparedness and response. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No
  • 1 = Yes, but not in the past two years
  • 2 = Yes, in the past two years

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

 

3.2.9 ConvEx-3 and Other Field Exercise Participation

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area has participated in the most recent ConvEx-3 exercise or another relevant nuclear security field exercise in the past five years. Participation in ConvEx-3 exercises and other field exercises boosts countries’ and areas’ preparedness to address emergency scenarios as they relate to nuclear security. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No
  • 1 = Yes

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

3.3 International Assurances

The International Assurances indicator comprises 10 subindicators, 3 of which are new in 2026.

3.3.8 (Theft: Secure Materials) / 3.3.6 (Sabotage: Protect Facilities) / 3.2.11 (Theft: Support Global Efforts) Endorsement of the IAEA’s Seven Indispensable Pillars

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area has published any endorsement of the IAEA’s Seven Indispensable Pillars for Ensuring Nuclear Safety and Security during an Armed Conflict. An endorsement of the IAEA’s Seven Indispensable Pillars signals a country or area’s commitment to nuclear safety and security standards. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No
  • 1 = Yes

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking. In the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking, it is numbered 3.3.8 and 3.3.6, respectively, and is included in the International Assurances indicator. In the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, it is numbered 3.2.11 and is included in the Voluntary Commitments indicator as the International Assurances indicator is not included in the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking.

 

3.3.9 (Theft: Secure Materials) / 3.3.7 (Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Commitment to develop capacity/sites for irretrievable permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area has committed to developing capacity/sites for irretrievable permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel. Commitments to developing capacity and sites for the irretrievable permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel are crucial for preventing future risks of radiation release from damage to spent fuel storage and minimizing access to potential weapons-usable nuclear materials. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No, the country or area has not committed to developing capacity/sites for irretrievable permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel
  • 1 = Yes, the country or area has committed to developing capacity/sites for irretrievable permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel and the country or area has identified a site
  • 2 = Yes, the country or area has committed to developing capacity/sites for irretrievable permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel and the country or area is in the licensing process
  • 3 = Yes, the country or area has committed to developing capacity/sites for irretrievable permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel and licensing is completed

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

 

3.3.10 (Theft: Secure Materials) / 3.3.8 (Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Commitment to forgo reprocessing of nuclear fuel

This subindicator assesses whether a country or area has committed to forgo reprocessing of nuclear fuel. A commitment to forgo reprocessing of nuclear fuel reflects a country’s or area‘s dedication to minimizing nuclear security and proliferation risks by avoiding technologies that can directly result in weapons-usable nuclear material. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = The country or area has not committed to forgo reprocessing and the country or area currently has reprocessing facilities
  • 1 = The country or area has not committed to forgo reprocessing, but the country or area does not currently have reprocessing facilities OR the country or area has committed to forgo reprocessing, but the country or area has not yet stopped reprocessing activities
  • 2 = The country or area has committed to forgo reprocessing and the country or area has stopped reprocessing or has never engaged in reprocessing

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

5.3 Pervasiveness of Corruption

The Pervasiveness of Corruption indicator comprises two subindicators, one of which is new in 2026.

5.3.2 Vested interests/cronyism

This subindicator assesses how pervasive vested interests and cronyism are among public officials. Vested interests and cronyism can affect the rigor with which nuclear security measures are implemented. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = Very high
  • 1 = High
  • 2 = Moderate
  • 3 = Low
  • 4 = Very low

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

5.5 Environmental Risk

The Environmental Risk indicator, which is a new addition to the NTI Index in 2026, includes one subindicator.

5.5.1 Environmental vulnerability

This subindicator assesses the level of risk to physical infrastructure as a result of climate impacts. Climate change and environmental impacts such as flooding and extreme heat can threaten the integrity and security of nuclear infrastructure facilities. To obtain the standardized scores, the sum of the physical risk factors as well as the adaptation capacity are scaled by a factor of 0.725 so that the average score after adaptation capacity is equal to 1. Similarly, the weighted sum of the transition risk factors is multiplied by 2.520. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = Very high
  • 1 = High
  • 2 = Moderate
  • 3 = Low
  • 4 = Very low

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

Modified indicators

1.2 Sites and Transportation (Theft: Secure Materials)

The Sites and Transportation indicator comprises four subindicators, two of which have been modified between 2023 and 2026.

1.2.2 Reprocessing facilities

In 2023, Subindicator 1.2.2 assessed the number of bulk processing facilities in a country or area, combining both reprocessing and enrichment facilities into a single measure. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised this subindicator to assess reprocessing facilities separately from enrichment facilities. By separating heavy metals from radioactive fission products, reprocessing introduces weapons-usable nuclear material into the fuel cycle. Assessing reprocessing facilities independently provides a more granular measure of the risks associated with the availability and handling of weapons-usable nuclear materials. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = 3 or more reprocessing facilities handling HEU, plutonium, or MOX or the number of facilities is not disclosed
  • 1 = 2 reprocessing facilities handling HEU, plutonium, or MOX
  • 2 = 1 reprocessing facility handling HEU, plutonium, or MOX
  • 3 = No reprocessing facilities handling HEU, plutonium, or MOX

This subindicator is included only in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking.

 

1.2.3 Enrichment Facilities

In 2023, enrichment facilities were assessed as part of bulk processing facilities within Subindicator 1.2.2. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI introduced a separate subindicator to assess enrichment facilities handling HEU. Enrichment facilities handling HEU increase the availability and handling of weapons-usable nuclear materials, heightening the risk of theft, diversion, or misuse. Tracking the number of facilities helps assess a country’s or area’s potential exposure to nuclear security threats and the extent of safeguards required. Enrichment facilities handling only low-enriched uranium (LEU) are not included as no weapons-usable materials are present. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = 4 or more enrichment facilities handling HEU or the number of facilities is not disclosed
  • 1 = 2–3 enrichment facilities handling HEU
  • 2 = 1 enrichment facility handling HEU
  • 3 = No enrichment facilities handling HEU

This subindicator is included only in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking.

2.4 Physical Security during Transport

The Physical Security during Transport indicator comprises one subindicator, which has been modified between 2023 and 2026.

2.4.1 Physical security during transport

Materials in transport are particularly vulnerable to theft. In 2023, this subindicator assessed whether the IAEA guidelines regarding the transport of nuclear materials encompassed in INFCIRC/225/Rev.4 or Rev.5 had been translated into the national regulatory regime. Countries or areas received partial credit for implementing the transport security guidelines contained in INFCIRC/225/Rev.4 and full credit for implementing the guidelines contained in INFCIRC/225/Rev.5. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised the scoring system to align exclusively with the most recent IAEA guidance contained in INFCIRC/225/Rev.5. Therefore, only countries or areas that have translated the appropriate transport security guidelines encompassed in INFCIRC/225/Rev.5 into their national regulatory regime receive credit. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = No or information not publicly available
  • 1 = Appropriate guidelines encompassed in INFCIRC 225/Rev. 5 (based on quantities of materials in the country or area) are met

This subindicator is included only in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking.

2.5 Response Capabilities

The Response Capabilities indicator comprises five subindicators, one of which has been modified between 2023 and 2026.

2.5.4 (Theft: Secure Materials) / 2.4.4 (Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Nuclear infrastructure protection plan

In 2023, this subindicator assessed whether a country’s or area’s regulatory framework stated that, in the event of a human-made or natural disaster, plans were in place to physically protect nuclear infrastructure. Countries received credit if such plans existed. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised the scoring system to distinguish between the existence of a nuclear infrastructure protection plan and the regular testing of that plan. Including this subindicator shows a country’s or area’s level of preparedness to protect nuclear infrastructure during emergencies, including both natural and human-made disasters. Including this in the NTI Index helps assess whether countries have comprehensive and tested plans to prevent the loss, damage, or theft of nuclear materials during crises that could undermine nuclear security. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = No or information not publicly available
  • 1 = Yes
  • 2 = Yes and tests of the nuclear infrastructure protection plan are required at defined intervals

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

2.6 Cybersecurity

The Cybersecurity indicator comprises seven subindicators, two of which have been modified between 2023 and 2026.

2.6.1 (Theft: Secure Materials) / 2.5.1 (Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Mandatory cybersecurity

In 2023, this subindicator assessed whether domestic regulations or licensing conditions required nuclear facilities to protect against cyberattacks. Countries or areas received credit if such requirements existed. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised the scoring system to award additional credit to countries that incorporate cybersecurity considerations during the construction and licensing phases of nuclear facilities. Requiring nuclear facilities to have protection from a cyberattack increases the likelihood that nuclear facilities will take measures to protect against cyberattacks. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = No or information not publicly available
  • 1 = Yes, domestic regulations or licensing conditions require nuclear facilities to protect against cyberattacks
  • 2 = Yes and a voluntary review program exists to review cybersecurity during the construction phase or prior to formal licensing
  • 3 = Yes and domestic regulations or licensing requirements require the establishment of a cybersecurity program at the construction stage in addition to at operation

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

 

2.6.2 (Theft: Secure Materials) / 2.5.2 (Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Sensitive digital asset management

In 2023, this subindicator assessed whether domestic regulations or licensing conditions required nuclear facilities to protect sensitive digital assets that affect safety, security, emergency preparedness functions, and their support systems from a cyberattack. Countries or areas received additional credit if sensitive digital assets were required to be routinely or periodically cataloged. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised the scoring system to award additional credit to countries or areas that have adopted a function-based approach to managing sensitive digital assets. Requiring protection of sensitive digital assets against cyberattacks decreases the chance that an attacker can circumvent the most critical systems, information, and processes within the facility to protect against sabotage. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = No or information not publicly available
  • 1 = Yes
  • 2 = Yes, and sensitive digital assets are required to be routinely or periodically cataloged
  • 3 = Yes, and regulations are now using a function-based approach to managing sensitive digital assets

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

3.2 Voluntary Commitments

The Voluntary Commitments indicator comprises 10 subindicators, 2 of which have been modified between 2023 and 2026.

3.2.1 Global FTPRNT

In 2023, this subindicator assessed whether a country or area was a member of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised this subindicator to instead assess membership in Global Forum to Prevent Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism. Voluntary commitments demonstrate a state’s support for global efforts to strengthen nuclear security. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No
  • 1 = Yes

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

 

3.2.5 Bilateral/multilateral financial and in-kind assistance

In 2023, this subindicator assessed whether a country or area had provided financial or practical bilateral or multilateral assistance for other states or received such assistance in the field of nuclear security within the previous two years. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised the wording of this subindicator to more explicitly capture financial and in-kind assistance. Voluntary commitments demonstrate a state’s support for global efforts to strengthen nuclear security. The scoring scheme for this subindicator is as follows:

  • 0 = No
  • 1 = Yes

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

5.1 Political Stability

The Political Stability indicator comprises five subindicators, four of which have been modified between 2023 and 2026.

5.1.1 Stability

In 2023, this subindicator assessed the risk of significant social unrest during the subsequent two years using data from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Risk Briefing service. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised this subindicator to assess broader measures of national stability based on data from the Fragile States Index. Significant instability can affect the government’s ability to secure nuclear facilities, or the upheaval created by instability may provide opportunities for groups seeking to illicitly acquire nuclear materials. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = Very low stability
  • 1 = Low stability
  • 2 = Moderate stability
  • 3 = High stability
  • 4 = Very high stability

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

 

5.1.3 International disputes/tensions

In 2023, this subindicator assessed the risk that international disputes or tensions would negatively affect a country or area during the subsequent two years using data from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Risk Briefing service. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised this subindicator to assess a country’s or area’s current involvement, either directly or indirectly, in armed conflicts or disputes using data from the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. Tensions with important trade or strategic partners and armed regional conflicts could have destabilizing implications for a country or area and hence, for nuclear security. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = War
  • 1 = Limited wars
  • 2 = Violent crises
  • 3 = Nonviolent crises
  • 4 = Disputes
  • 5 = No conflict or involvement

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

 

5.1.4 (Theft: Secure Materials / Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Armed conflict

In 2023, this subindicator assessed whether a country or area was presently subject to armed conflict or faced at least a moderate risk of such conflict during the subsequent two years. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised this subindicator to assess the proximity of armed conflict to nuclear materials and facilities using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project. Conflict-event data were overlaid with the locations of nuclear facilities and materials to assess whether armed conflict had occurred in proximity to sites containing nuclear materials or facilities. Armed conflict in areas where nuclear facilities are located could disrupt nuclear security implementation or result in direct damage to the physical infrastructure of nuclear facilities. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = A battle/explosion/armed conflict clash has occurred within 10 miles of a nuclear facility in the past 12 months
  • 1 = No conflict has taken place within 10 miles of a nuclear facility in the past 12 months

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking. However, in the case of the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, it continues to be scored on the basis of EIU Operational Risk data (as in the 2023 NTI Index), as the number of sites is not measured within this ranking.

 

5.1.5 (Theft: Secure Materials / Sabotage: Protect Facilities) Violent demonstrations or violent civil/labor unrest

In 2023, this subindicator assessed the likelihood that violent demonstrations or violent civil/labor unrest would occur during the subsequent two years using data from the EIU’s Risk Briefing service. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised this subindicator to assess the proximity of violent demonstrations and riots to nuclear facilities using geospatial event data from the ACLED. Event data were overlaid with the locations of nuclear facilities and materials to assess whether violent demonstrations or riots had occurred in proximity to sites containing nuclear materials or facilities. Violent demonstrations that require police and security attention in areas where nuclear facilities are located could seriously compromise site security and the availability of resources. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = A violent demonstration/riot conflict clash has occurred within 10 miles of a nuclear facility in the past 12 months
  • 1 = No violent demonstration/riot has taken place within 10 miles of a nuclear facility in the past 12 months

This subindicator is included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking, the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking. However, in the case of the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, it continues to be scored on the basis of EIU Operational Risk data (as in the 2023 NTI Index), as the number of sites is not measured within this ranking.

5.4 Illicit Activities by Nonstate Actors

The Illicit Activities by Nonstate Actors indicator comprises four subindicators, two of which have been modified between 2023 and 2026.

5.4.3 Domestic terrorism threat

In 2023, this subindicator assessed whether terrorist groups operating within a country or area demonstrated the capability to seize nuclear materials or sabotage a nuclear facility. Countries and areas received a binary score based on the presence or absence of such groups. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised this subindicator to assess the level of domestic terrorism threat using data from the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). The domestic presence of terrorist activity increases the risk of nuclear terrorism, including the potential seizure of nuclear materials or attacks on nuclear facilities. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = Extreme domestic terrorism threat
  • 1 = Severe domestic terrorism threat
  • 2 = Very high domestic terrorism threat
  • 3 = High domestic terrorism threat
  • 4 = Moderately high domestic terrorism threat
  • 5 = Moderate domestic terrorism threat
  • 6 = Moderately low domestic terrorism threat
  • 7 = Low domestic terrorism threat
  • 8 = Very low domestic terrorism threat
  • 9 = Minimal domestic terrorism threat
  • 10 = Negligible domestic terrorism threat

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

 

5.4.4 Neighboring Terror Threat

In 2023, this subindicator assessed the risk posed by terrorist groups operating in neighboring countries or areas through a bespoke methodology based on the presence and capabilities of armed groups identified by the University of Maryland’s START Global Terrorism Database and Stanford University’s Mapping Militants Project. In 2026, Economist Enterprise and NTI revised this subindicator to assess neighboring terrorism threats using data from the Global Terrorism Index. The presence of terrorist activity in neighboring countries or areas may undermine the security of domestic nuclear materials and facilities through regional instability, cross-border militant activity, and illicit trafficking networks. The new scoring scheme is as follows:

  • 0 = Extreme neighboring terror threat
  • 1 = Severe neighboring terror threat
  • 2 = Very high neighboring terror threat
  • 3 = High neighboring terror threat
  • 4 = Moderately high neighboring terror threat
  • 5 = Moderate neighboring terror threat
  • 6 = Moderately low neighboring terror threat
  • 7 = Low neighboring terror threat
  • 8 = Very low neighboring terror threat
  • 9 = Minimal neighboring terror threat
  • 10 = Negligible neighboring terror threat

This subindicator is included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

Comparability between 2023 and 2026 indices

To ensure an accurate year-over-year comparison, Economist Enterprise required identical datasets for each model for all years of the Index.12 Modifying the Index framework prevents a direct comparison between the 2026 and previous indices (i.e., 2016–2023). To allow comparisons, Economist Enterprise undertook research to rescore the previous indices using the revised 2026 NTI Index framework. To do this, Economist Enterprise considered the information that would have been available during the period of initial research (e.g., July 2019 to March 2020 for the 2020 Index). In some cases, the scores that would have been assigned for previous indices were obvious based on the date of the relevant regulatory document. For example, if a country or area subscribed to INFCIRC/908 in 2017, Economist Enterprise would assign scores of 1 for that indicator for the 2018 and 2020 indices. When Economist Enterprise could not confirm whether a requirement had been in place during the previous research period, it either queried the governments during data confirmation or, when that was not possible, made reasonable assumptions based on whether regulatory changes at nuclear facilities had been instituted in recent years.

In addition to rescoring data for the new indicators, in a limited number of cases, Economist Enterprise adjusted previous scores because of new evidence. In all cases, if a previous score was deemed inaccurate, Economist Enterprise corrected the score to reflect the most up-to-date information available. Those adjustments help ensure that no artificial improvements or declines in scores are captured in the 2026 NTI Index. 

In a few instances, the responses to the 2026 data review and confirmation request contradicted their own responses from previous years. In those cases, Economist Enterprise first queried the government about the discrepancy; if Economist Enterprise did not receive a response to the query, additional research was undertaken and, in some cases, reasonable assumptions were made based on available sources.

Once Economist Enterprise had comparable datasets across the five NTI Index iterations (2016–2026), a year-over-year comparison could highlight where scores had improved, remained the same, or declined based on actions taken by countries or areas. The scores and rankings for the rescored indices were calculated using the same framework, methodology, and weights as described in the section titled “Calculating the 2026 NTI Nuclear Security Index.” Owing to the methodological change and updated scores described earlier, the normalized scores and ranks in the originally published 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2023 NTI Index models and reports are not comparable to the normalized scores and ranks in the newly rescored data for those years or to the scores and ranks in the 2026 model and report. To understand changes in scores between previous indices and 2026 resulting from actions taken by countries, users should use the 2026 dashboards and their comparison tools, rather than previous models.


Comparison between the Theft: Secure Materials Ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities Ranking

Given the widespread danger of the threat of sabotage and the serious consequences that could result from a large radiological release, NTI and Economist Enterprise developed the sabotage assessment in the 2016 NTI Index. Countries and areas are selected for inclusion in the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking if they have (a) operating nuclear power reactors or nuclear power reactors that have been shut down within the past five years, (b) research reactors with a capacity of 2 megawatts or greater, (c) reprocessing facilities; or (d) spent fuel pools, only if the fuel has been discharged in the past five years and is not associated with an operating reactor. In 2026, NTI and Economist Enterprise identified 47 countries and Taiwan with such facilities. Twenty of these countries are in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and 27 of the countries and Taiwan are in the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking.

Although many of the indicators in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking framework and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking framework are the same, the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking framework is designed to specifically address protection of nuclear facilities against sabotage. Several of the subindicators in the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking are slightly different from their equivalent in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking to reflect differences in how nuclear facilities are protected against theft versus sabotage. In such cases, this will mean a country’s or area’s score for the same subindicator in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking may differ. Additionally, 9 sabotage-specific subindicators are included in the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking framework, and 15 subindicators that are included in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking are not included in the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking framework.13

The following chart shows the differences between the Theft: Secure Materials and Sabotage: Protect Facilities rankings. Those indicators that are marked n/a have not been included in their respective ranking framework; categories, indicators, and subindicators with asterisks have been altered in the sabotage ranking framework.

Theft: Secure Materials vs Sabotage: Protect Facilities Comparison
Theft: Secure Materials Ranking Sabotage: Protect Facilities Ranking

Research behind selected indicators

This section focuses on the research behind selected indicators and includes an explanation of the scoring framework behind several of the more complex variables created by Economist Enterprise. Scoring criteria for all the indicators are included in the Scoring section.

Approach

Economist Enterprise used its network of more than 900 country and area experts and regional specialists, many with local language skills, to undertake the research. However, given the reliance of the NTI Index on publicly available sources, researchers faced constraints in some areas because of the opaque nature of certain aspects of nuclear security. To address this lack of publicly available information and to reduce the subjectivity of the researchers, Economist Enterprise implemented specific scoring schemes and instituted strict scoring guidelines. These steps to address the lack of information or to reduce subjectivity are detailed in the following sections.

Challenging indicators

  • 1.1 Quantities of Nuclear Materials (Theft: Secure Materials ranking)This indicator seeks to capture each country’s or area’s combined total quantity of highly enriched uranium, including spent fuel and separated plutonium, including plutonium content in unirradiated mixed oxide fuel. Materials that are owned by one country but are present in another are accounted for under the latter’s total. Plutonium content in MOX is either reported as such by a state or calculated as 5 to 8 percent of total MOX quantities. Quantities include materials in weapons components.The key challenge in researching quantities of weapons-usable nuclear materials is the general lack of publicly available information in this area, particularly for nuclear-weapons states. Most countries and areas do not declare all their nuclear materials (including materials in weapon components). Economist Enterprise primarily relied on two sources for data (in addition to consulting national sources, where available): the IAEA and its INFCIRC 549 declarations (civilian plutonium, civilian MOX, civilian HEU) and the International Panel on Fissile Materials (military HEU and plutonium). In many cases, the sources use estimates or ranges of quantities that are based on the latest available information. Where quantities were provided in a range, Economist Enterprise used the midpoint (e.g., a range of 5–10 kilograms would be reported by Economist Enterprise as 7.5 kilograms).Owing to the uncertainties associated with quantities,14 Economist Enterprise banded the data into eight groups. This banding allows for slight variances in accounting for quantities without affecting scoring outcomes.
  • 1.2 Number of Sites (Theft: Secure Materials ranking)
    This indicator seeks to capture how many sites (both military and civilian) with 1 kilogram or more of HEU, including spent fuel, or separated plutonium, including unirradiated MOX are present in a country or area. Significant challenges arose in researching this indicator. Unsurprisingly, many countries and areas do not publish the number or location of facilities with weapons-usable nuclear materials. There are sound national security reasons for not publicizing specific information on quantities and sites. Nevertheless, the lack of transparency in this area meant that Economist Enterprise had to use the limited publicly available information to estimate the number of sites. Owing to the uncertainty associated with these estimates, Economist Enterprise again banded the number of sites.
  • 2.2.2 and 2.2.3 Radiological Consequences (Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking)
    These two subindicators assess whether countries and areas require the use of a graded approach to security for nuclear materials and equipment, systems, and devices, the sabotage of which could result in high radiological consequences. Economist Enterprise encountered many challenges when scoring this indicator. These challenges primarily centered on the distinction between safety and security. The subindicators in the NTI Index are designed to address security measures at nuclear facilities. Radiological consequences, however, are relevant to both safety and security concerns. The intersection between safety and security made the research challenging, particularly with regard to the protection of nuclear materials. In many cases, the regulations referenced protection against theft based on common categories of nuclear materials that are used by the IAEA (e.g., Category I, Category II). The IAEA does not apply these categories in the context of sabotage, but some countries or areas appear to do so. Ultimately, Economist Enterprise gave credit for these two subindicators only when the regulations specifically mentioned a graded approach to physical protection or increased levels of security for nuclear materials or equipment, systems, and devices taking into account the radiological consequences.
  • 2.6/2.5 Cybersecurity (Theft: Secure Materials ranking and Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking)
    The Cybersecurity indicator includes seven subindicators on (a) mandatory cyber protection, (b) protection of sensitive digital assets against cyberattacks, (c) cybersecurity DBT, (d) tests and assessments, (e) cybersecurity capacity building, (f) cyber-incident response plans, and (g) mandatory cybersecurity awareness programs. Cybersecurity’s relatively recent inclusion in national nuclear regulations means that very little publicly available information exists. Some countries and areas address cybersecurity comprehensively in their national regulations; others are working to update their legislation to include cybersecurity. Yet many countries and areas with weapons-usable nuclear materials or nuclear facilities at risk of sabotage have no regulations that require cybersecurity at nuclear facilities. To receive credit for these subindicators, countries and areas must specifically include nuclear facilities in their cybersecurity plans. Credit is not given for laws and policies related to cybersecurity of general critical infrastructure.
  • 3.3.3 Published nuclear security progress reports (Theft: Secure Materials ranking and Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking)
    This subindicator seeks to assess whether countries and areas have made public declarations about nuclear security progress. To apply consistent scoring criteria to this indicator, Economist Enterprise and NTI worked together to develop a strict scoring rubric. To be considered a public declaration on nuclear security progress, the declaration, statement, or report must include a substantial description of nuclear security practices. A declaration, statement, or report meets the criteria if it (a) is delivered in conjunction with an international, multilateral, or regional conference on nuclear security (e.g., IAEA’s International Conference on Nuclear Security, the IAEA General Conference, Global Partnership meetings, or a nuclear security treaty conference, such as the CPPNM Amendment or ICSANT) and (b) provides information about actions the country or area has taken to strengthen its own nuclear security (e.g., passing new legislation or regulations; reducing, eliminating, or consolidating nuclear materials; converting HEU to LEU; hosting a peer review; or other specific actions) or to strengthen the global nuclear security architecture (e.g., providing funds to the IAEA’s Nuclear Security Fund, supporting the IAEA’s nuclear security work, providing assistance to another country or area, or other specific actions). Reporting on treaty ratification only would not be considered a progress report. Furthermore, steps toward improving nuclear security must have been taken within two years of the report to qualify.
  • 5.4 Illicit Activities of Nonstate Actors (Theft: Secure Materials ranking, Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking)
    As detailed in the previous “Modified Indicators” section, this indicator seeks to understand whether any terrorist or criminal groups that may be interested in illicitly acquiring weapons-usable nuclear materials or that may be interested in committing acts of nuclear terrorism more generally are present in a country or area and are capable of carrying out their goals. Details as to the extent of a group’s presence in a given country or area could not be easily ascertained. Owing to the nature of this topic, which has serious national security implications for states, publicly available information is limited. Nonetheless, Economist Enterprise and NTI worked with a group of technical advisors to craft four subindicators to approximate the general level of the terrorism threat in each country and area, taking into account the capabilities of groups, their cross-border nature, and the impact of nonterrorist illicit activities.

    The indicator comprises four subindicators that assess both domestic and regional threats from nonstate actors. Subindicator 5.4.1 assesses the likelihood of terrorist attacks, whereas Subindicator 5.4.2 captures illicit trafficking activity through the number of firearms seized during interdiction of illicit weapons trafficking. Subindicators 5.4.3 and 5.4.4 assess domestic and neighboring terrorism threats, respectively, based on data from the Global Terrorism Index.

Unlike previous editions of the NTI Index, which relied on bespoke assessments of terrorist group presence and capabilities, the 2026 framework incorporates GTI data to provide a more standardized and granular assessment of terrorism-related risks. The revised methodology enables a more consistent evaluation of the extent to which terrorist activity may affect nuclear security conditions within a country or area and across its surrounding region.

Challenging countries

Although each country and area posed unique research challenges, China, Iran, Israel, and North Korea were particularly complicated. China and Iran make regulations publicly available, but several regulatory areas in these countries remain confidential. Israel does not publicly acknowledge its nuclear program and therefore does not publish any regulations on nuclear security. As for North Korea, although there is some historical insight into the internal workings of its nuclear facilities/sites, it is minimal at best. In the interest of ensuring that the NTI Index is as accurate as possible, Economist Enterprise scored several indicators across these five countries using proxy scoring and expert input.

The following scoring methods were applied to these five countries to score the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking.

  • Use of military proxy
    Iran, Israel, and North Korea were particularly difficult to score for the On-Site Physical Protection indicator (2.1). These countries are distinct among those countries for which Economist Enterprise could not find publicly available information in that they rely primarily on military (or, in the case of Israel, civil defense force) protection for nuclear sites. For Indicator 2.1, therefore, Economist Enterprise used a proxy indicator—military capability or sophistication—to score these countries. The only exception to this approach was Subindicator 2.1.5 Physical protection sustainability, which was added to the Theft with Materials and Sabotage frameworks in 2026. For this subindicator, these countries were assessed based on the scoring criteria specific to this subindicator rather than the military capability or sophistication proxy applied elsewhere within Indicator 2.1. The military capability or sophistication indicator is scored as follows:

    • A score of 0 means “very low”: no investment in military research and development (R&D). Principal equipment is very old or obsolete.
    • A score of 1 means “low”: minimal investment in military R&D. A high percentage of equipment is old and unsophisticated.
    • A score of 2 means “moderate”: investment of a small part of military expenditure in R&D. Principal equipment is a mixture of new and old and is moderately sophisticated.
    • A score of 3 means “high”: substantial investment in military R&D and in maintenance. Principal equipment is relatively modern and sophisticated and is well maintained.
    • A score of 4 means “very high”: huge investment in military R&D and armament production projects. Principal equipment is new and highly sophisticated.Although the maximum score for Indicator 2.1 is 7, the maximum score these three countries could receive was 6, where 6 represented the most favorable nuclear security conditions. The absence of information on nuclear security reduces public and international understanding of the security measures countries are taking. Therefore, receiving the highest possible score of 7 for Indicator 2.1 was inappropriate for states that were scored using a proxy. The maximum score of 6 reflects the combination of the military capability or sophistication score applied to Subindicators 2.1.1 through 2.1.4 and the separately determined score for Subindicator 2.1.5 Physical protection sustainability.
  • Assumptions based on military control of materials
    For the following subindicators, the scores for Iran, Israel, and North Korea assume that the military imposes a strict regime under direct control of the state:

    • 2.3.1 Personnel vetting (Israel and North Korea only)
    • 2.4.1 Physical security during transport (Theft: Secure Materials ranking only)
    • 2.5.1 Emergency response capabilities
    • 2.5.2 Armed response capabilities
    • 2.5.3 Law enforcement response training
    • 2.6.1 Cybersecurity regulations (Israel only)

The unique approaches used for each country reflect the relative level of regulations available. For example, Iran makes publicly available its regulations on personnel vetting; however, it does not publish regulations on response capabilities. Yet because Iran’s state security and intelligence forces are responsible for security at the country’s nuclear sites, it can be inferred that internal, nonpublic regulations mandate the existence of such response capabilities. Similar assumptions are made across these other countries where regulations are not publicly available, and the military imposes a strict regime around nuclear security conditions.

  • Expert input used
    Expert input or secondary sources were used to assign scores for the following indicators and subindicators:

    • 2.1.4 Tests and assessments (China only)
    • 2.2 Control and accounting procedures (North Korea only)
    • 2.2.5 Control measures (China only)
    • 2.3.1 Personnel vetting (China, North Korea, Russia)
    • 2.3.3 (China only)
    • 2.3.5 Insider threat awareness program (Russia only)
    • 2.4.1 Physical security during transport (North Korea only) (Theft: Secure Materials ranking only)
    • 2.7.1 Security culture (China only)
    • 4.3.1 (China and Russia only)China makes most of its nuclear security regulations publicly available and, for the first time in 2020, China participated in the data confirmation process, though some areas are ambiguous or remain confidential altogether. In these instances, Economist Enterprise has relied on expert input or secondary evidence to provide appropriate scores. For example, China’s regulations on personnel vetting do not clearly specify the required screening mechanisms (e.g., drug tests, background checks, mental fitness checks) for personnel; however, experts on Chinese nuclear policy have confirmed that personnel vetting mechanisms are applied across nuclear facilities.
  • Israel
    Israel maintains a policy of opacity regarding its nuclear program. Israel does not publish any nuclear security–related laws or regulations that could be used in this research. Moreover, Economist Enterprise was unable to elicit expert opinion on Israel’s nuclear security conditions as it did for the other challenging countries. As already noted, owing to the lack of publicly available information, Economist Enterprise used proxies as a scoring technique for some indicators.

    Economist Enterprise did not use a proxy (military sophistication) or an assumption based on military (or similar body) protection of nuclear sites to score the Control and Accounting Procedures indicator (2.2). Material control and accounting is typically not in the purview of security personnel responsible for protecting nuclear materials. Economist Enterprise and its experts acknowledge that more than likely Israel has regulations on MC&A. However, Israel maintains an unusual lack of transparency regarding nuclear materials; thus, Economist Enterprise erred on the conservative side in its scoring. The burden of proof is on Israel to demonstrate that it has systems in place.

    In cases where security-related concerns are typically the responsibility of military or other trained personnel, Economist Enterprise did use proxies based on Israel’s military sophistication. For example, although Israel’s cybersecurity regulations are not publicly available, it has a military cyber unit within the Israel Defense Forces that defends the country’s critical cyber infrastructure. Economist Enterprise was able to make a confident assumption that Israel’s nuclear facilities are protected against cyberattacks. Economist Enterprise therefore provided partial credit to Israel on the cybersecurity indicator.

  • Treatment of Taiwan in the NTI Index
    Taiwan is included in the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking. Taiwan posed a unique research challenge, as it is not currently a member of the IAEA or a party to most international conventions owing to its status in the international community. However, it has well-established and publicly available regulations. Therefore, for the Security and Control Measures category Economist Enterprise reviewed Taiwan’s publicly available nuclear regulations and Atomic Energy Council legislation. Economist Enterprise also determined that for select indicators it was appropriate to score Taiwan on the basis of relevant domestic regulations and other considerations, as detailed below:

    • 3.1.1 Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM)
      Taiwan is not a party to the CPPNM. Economist Enterprise assigned credit to Taiwan based on provisions in its domestic regulations.

    • 3.1.2 2005 Amendment to the CPPNM
      Taiwan is not a party to the 2005 Amendment to the CPPNM. Economist Enterprise has given Taiwan credit on this subindicator based on its domestic regulations and the U.S.-Taiwan 123 Agreement for Peaceful Cooperation, which legally binds Taiwan to follow the CPPNM and the 2005 Amendment. The U.S.-Taiwan 123 Agreement came into force on June 22, 2014. Therefore, Taiwan receives credit for the 2005 CPPNM Amendment in the 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2023 NTI Index, but not in the 2012 or 2014 editions, as no evidence exists that the provisions of the 2005 CPPNM Amendment were legally binding before the 123 Agreement.

    • 4.1.1 UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 reporting and 4.1.2 Extent of UNSCR 1540 implementation
      Because Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations, it is not obliged to—and in fact cannot—provide a UNSCR 1540 Report to the 1540 Committee. Despite this, Economist Enterprise assigned credit to Taiwan for a report and matrix it has drafted, modeled on 1540 reports, which is publicly available on Taiwan’s Atomic Energy Council’s website. Economist Enterprise also reviewed and scored this matrix against the same criteria used to assess other 1540 reports. Treating Taiwan’s matrix like other countries’ matrices, Economist Enterprise has assigned credit based on the number of elements of UNSCR 1540 that have been implemented as reflected in the matrix.

    • 4.2.1 CPPNM implementation authority
      Economist Enterprise assigned credit to Taiwan on the basis of having a national authority for the implementation of nuclear security regulations.

    • 4.2.2 National legal framework for CPPNM Amendment
      Economist Enterprise assigned credit to Taiwan on the basis of provisions in its domestic regulations.


Selected Bibliography

Note: Economist Enterprise qualitative assessments are based on official national sources, which vary by country and area.

Common primary and secondary sources

  • Cann, Michelle, Kelsey Davenport, and Jenna Parker. The Nuclear Security Summit: Progress Report on Joint Statements. Washington, DC: Arms Control Association, March 2015. www.armscontrol.org/files/ACA_NSS_Report_2015.pdf.
  • IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities Database, infcis.iaea.org/NFCFDB/facilities.
    • Research Reactor Database, nucleus.iaea.org/rrdb/home.
    • Website, www.iaea.org/.
  • Institute for Science and International Security. Website, www.isis-online.org/.
  • IPFM (International Panel on Fissile Materials). Global Fissile Material Report 2022: Fifty Years of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Nuclear Weapons, Fissile Materials, and Nuclear Energy. Princeton, NJ: IPFM, 2022. https://fissilematerials.org/library/gfmr22.pdf
  • James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Website, cns.miis.edu/.
  • United Nations. Treaty Collection website, treaties.un.org/.
  • U.S. Department of State. Website, www.state.gov/.
  • U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration. Website, nnsa.energy.gov/.
  • WINS (World Institute for Nuclear Security). Website, www.wins.org.
  • World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power Reactors website, world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-power-reactors.

Sources for Political Stability (5.1), Effective Governance (5.2) and Pervasiveness of Corruption (5.3)

  • EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit). “Operational Risk,” www.eiu.com.
  • Fragile States Index. Analytics website, fragilestatesindex.org/.
  • Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. Conflict Barometer 2024, https://hiik.de/.

Sources for Illicit Activities of Nonstate Actors (5.4)

  • ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data). Website, acleddata.com/.
  • Institute for Economics and Peace. Global Terrorism Index. Website, www.economicsandpeace.org/global-terrorism-index/.
  • United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Website, www.unodc.org.

Source for Environmental Risk (5.5)

  • European Investment Bank. Website, www.eib.org/en/index.

Sources for filter and highlight groups in NTI Index models

  • Nuclear Power Programs
    • IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). Nuclear Power Reactors in the World. Vienna: IAEA, 2025.
      • Power Reactor Information System. Website, pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryStatisticsLandingPage.aspx.
  • Planned or Proposed Nuclear Power Programs
    • World Nuclear Association. “Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries.” Last updated May 27, 2026. www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/others/emerging-nuclear-energy-countries.aspx.
Citations
  1. Belarus and Turkey were added to the sabotage ranking in 2026, as they now possess relevant nuclear facilities, the sabotage of which could result in a significant radiological release with serious off-site health consequences. Conversely, Norway was removed from the sabotage ranking in 2026, as it no longer possesses any such nuclear facilities.
  2. Category 1 in the Sabotage ranking does not include Quantities and is called Number of Sites.
  3. Until 2023, the Radioactive Source Security Assessment was developed as an Excel workbook data model. For the 2026 NTI Index, an interactive web-based dashboard using Apache Superset has replaced the Excel workbook.
  4. NTI recognizes that some states may have gram quantities of weapons-usable nuclear materials in multiple locations that, added together, may bring totals to more than 1 kilogram. For the purposes of the NTI Index and the need to rely on publicly available information, those states are grouped with states that have no weapons-usable nuclear materials.
  5. The EIU’s Operational Risk service provides forecasts, alerts, background studies, and data covering a wide range of risk factors across 180 countries. The service is updated regularly in response to events that affect the assessment of operating risk in a particular country or area.
  6. Taiwan is included in the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking. Given Taiwan’s status, this methodology describes the number of countries and areas in the NTI Index as “153 countries and Taiwan” and “47 countries and Taiwan” in the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking, respectively. 
  7. These nuclear facilities are (a) operating nuclear power reactors or nuclear power reactors that have been shut down within the past five years, (b) research reactors with a capacity of 2 megawatts or greater, (c) reprocessing facilities, and (d) spent fuel pools, only if the fuel has been discharged in the past five years and is not associated with an operating reactor.
  8. Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Sweden, Ukraine, and Vietnam removed all or most of their materials between the release of the 2012 NTI Index and the release of the 2014 NTI Index. Uzbekistan eliminated its stock of weapons-usable nuclear material between the release of the 2014 NTI Index and the release of the 2016 Index. Argentina and Poland removed all or most of their materials following the release of the 2016 Index.
  9. Of the 22 countries and areas that responded to the data confirmation, 6 are included in both the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking: Australia, Belgium, Canada, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. One response was from a country that is included only in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking: Italy. The remaining 14 including Taiwan are included only in the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking: Argentina, Armenia, Brazil, Chile, Finland, Hungary, Jordan, Mexico, Romania, Slovenia, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and Uzbekistan.
  10. In the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking, Indicator 3.2 comprises 11 subindicators rather than 10. This is because the ranking does not include Indicator 3.3 International assurances. As a result, the subindicator “Endorsement of the IAEA’s Seven Pillars”—which is included under Indicator 3.3 International Assurances in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking—is incorporated into Indicator 3.2 Voluntary Commitments instead. Despite this additional subindicator, the total score for Indicator 3.2 remains capped at 6 to ensure consistency across the rankings and to prevent the indicator from carrying greater weight in the Theft: Support Global Efforts ranking.
  11. There are differences between the Theft: Secure Materials ranking framework and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking framework. In some cases, although indicators in both models have the same names, different aspects of nuclear security are being measured (e.g., the number of sites subindicator defines sites differently in the Theft: Secure Materials and Sabotage: Protect Facilities rankings). Additionally, some indicators and subindicators have the same indicator question and the same scoring criteria, but owing to differences in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking framework and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking framework, they have different indicator and subindicator numbers. For a more extensive discussion of the differences between the Theft: Secure Materials ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking, see the section titled “Comparison between the Theft: Secure Materials Ranking and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities Ranking” and the indicator frameworks at the end of this Economist Enterprise Methodology. 
  12. The Nuclear Security Index was published in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2023.
  13. It is important to note that indicator and subindicator numbers differ in the Theft: Secure Materials ranking framework from those in the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking framework. Despite different indicator and subindicator numbers, the questions asked and the scoring criteria often remain consistent between the Theft: Secure Materials ranking framework and the Sabotage: Protect Facilities ranking framework. Any inconsistencies are explained in the indicator frameworks laid out in the Scoring section of this methodology. 
  14. The uncertainties associated with quantities of nuclear materials also affect Indicator 1.3 Material Production/Elimination Trends. Scores for 1.3 are based on the actions of a state within the past four years. When considering whether a country’s total stock of nuclear materials is decreasing, the following were evaluated: (a) Is the country reducing its stock of nuclear weapons? (b) Is reprocessing being discontinued? (c) Are HEU-fueled research reactors being converted to LEU and unneeded research reactors decommissioned? (d) Are military vessels that are fueled by HEU being converted to LEU? (e) Is the country returning or giving nuclear materials to another country? (f) Is a change the result of normal fluctuations due to the use of MOX in power reactors? In cases where changes in quantities of materials could potentially be explained by natural fluctuations in the fuel cycle, Economist Enterprise conducted an analysis of quantities in a country to determine whether the fluctuations were cyclical or whether long-term trends show a clear increase or decrease in quantities. Economist Enterprise considered HEU and separated plutonium cycles separately. In cases where fluctuations were cyclical, a country received a score of “no change.”

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